Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:25:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
36 0x36d8…6310 crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$68 (+5%) realized +$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%21W / 29L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days+$135
14 days+$135
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$83
other 23% +$47
sports 20% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -9.9% -18.5% 46% 43% +0.7%
≤30d 46 -9.9% -18.5% 46% 43% +0.7%
≤90d 50 -15.3% -23.3% 42% 40% -3.2%
all 50 -15.3% -23.3% 42% 40% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 40% -3.2%
10% -30.7% 34% -12.4%
15% -37.4% 30% -20.9%
20% -43.5% 18% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$13 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses21 / 29
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage66d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 87¢ 92¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 0¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $61 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$29 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$25 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$44 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$50 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +68%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $119 −$5 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $59 +$61 +103%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 $0 -5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$18 +88%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $39 +$11 +28%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 +$11 +109%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$8 +82%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +139%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $44 +$102 +234%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 08 $26 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 05 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $51 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $60 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $17 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 29m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 35m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $15 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $12 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $51 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $61 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $146 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.83 · official $18.83 (match) · 97 history records