Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:13:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
36 0x36d3…a26d politics 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$17
politics 35% −$14
sports 7% +$5
crypto 5% −$2
economics 3% −$1
world 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -0.6% -10.0% 6% 3% -9.6%
all 113 -1.4% -10.8% 8% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 5% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 4% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 3% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×8.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage115d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,161 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $878 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $234 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $325 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $269 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,114 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $310 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $321 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $322 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $273 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $234 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $252 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $250 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $262 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $236 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $208 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $224 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $226 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $226 $0 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $240 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $326 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 24 $336 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $295 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $268 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $315 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $310 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $308 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $304 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $338 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $341 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $290 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 18 $255 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $257 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $279 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $257 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 14h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 26h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 34h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 34h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 6d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 6d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 9d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 10d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 12d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i SELL No 100¢ $45 13d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i BUY No 100¢ $45 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $234 21d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $234 27d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $325 27d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $325 28d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $303 29d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $303 30d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $269 30d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $269 32d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $278 32d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $278 33d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $302 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.98 · official $35.98 (match) · 321 history records