Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:22:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36d0…93e4 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%10W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% $0
politics 18% −$1
other 16% −$4
culture 5% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 +0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.6%
all 45 -1.8% -11.1% 22% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses10 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage274d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $98 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $66 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $76 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $68 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $32 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $32 $0 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Oct 13 $23 −$2 -9%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Rental Family win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 06 $23 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 05 $1 $0 -3%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 04 $49 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 27 $2 $0 -16%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 26 $5 −$2 -33%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 26 $23 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? Sep 26 $23 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $3 $0 +1%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $31 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $31 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $31 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $31 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $32 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $33 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $32 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $10 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $23 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $12 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $21 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $32 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records