Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:56:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36cf…1ce0 politics 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%2W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$451per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$7
tech 24% −$3
world 16% −$3
politics 12% −$3
sports 8% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 27 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 30 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,005) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage91d
Avg bet$451
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 29 $1,170 −$1 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 29 $36 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $1,257 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 29 $2,098 −$3 -0%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? Jun 28 $53 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $59 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 28 $1,157 −$1 -0%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 28 $1,115 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland? May 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 18 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $938 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $68 $0 +0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $943 −$1 -0%
Will Dominic Solanke be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Pre Apr 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 17 $985 −$1 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in South Korea? Apr 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 16 $1,005 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $140 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $16 $0 -0%
Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31? Apr 03 $28 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Mar 30 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Momentum Movement (Momentum) win the most seats in the next H Mar 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $55 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,169 59m
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,161 1h
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,255 1h
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,225 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $767 2h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $315 2h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 2h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,083 2h
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $53 17h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 17h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 17h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 18h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,156 18h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 18h
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $17 18h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,145 18h
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $798 18h
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $36 18h
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $316 19h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 19h
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,115 19h
Will Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi SELL No 100¢ $52 48d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland? SELL No 100¢ $31 48d
Will Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi BUY No 100¢ $39 48d
Will Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi BUY No 100¢ $13 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records