Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:10:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x36cf…f4b0
other · 927 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$147 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$153 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses620 / 304
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)924 / 927
History coverage236d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%
Chart Positions 1 History 924 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5 Under 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Mali win on 2025-12-22? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? No 74¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Manchester City FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 3.5 Over 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) FC Barcelona 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Konyaspor win on 2026-04-27? No 71¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-03-21? No 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Gençlerbirliği SK: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11? No 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Lille OSC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 64¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-01? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-03-20? No 76¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Galatasaray SK vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Konyaspor win on 2026-02-21? No 82¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-03? No 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-07? No 77¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
SS Lazio vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5 Over 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $19 +$3 +18%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$6 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 13 $86 −$1 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$2 +31%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $8 +$4 +43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $7 +$2 +29%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $9 +$2 +27%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $1 $0 +34%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $3 +$1 +38%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 $0 +22%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 $0 -24%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $1 +$1 +65%
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$1 +27%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $2 +$1 +38%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5 May 23 $2 $0 +14%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 $0 +25%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 4.5 May 23 $12 +$1 +9%
Will Eberechi Eze be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squ May 22 $1 $0 +13%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $11 $0 +4%
Will SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $11 +$2 +21%
Will Cole Palmer be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squa May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$1 +67%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 +$1 +33%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Odense BK win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Gaziantep FK win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Trabzonspor vs. Gençlerbirliği SK: O/U 4.5 May 16 $10 $0 -4%
Celtic FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 1.5 May 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 67% −$175
sports 31% +$16
world 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 37¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $23 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY 82¢ $10 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Wi BUY 67¢ $10 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $19 7h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 19h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $20 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $36 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $30 23h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $34 23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 34h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $35 34h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $51 34h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 45h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $7 46h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 46h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $8 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 84¢ $6 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 69¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 3d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 14d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 15d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL No 100¢ $7 15d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $7 15d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 68¢ $5 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +10.8% +0.2% 71% 71% -21.2%
≤30d 52 -5.0% -14.0% 65% 60% -18.1%
≤90d 333 -3.7% -12.9% 68% 63% -15.3%
all 924 -2.5% -11.8% 67% 63% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 63% -13.2%
10% -20.2% 48% -21.5%
15% -27.9% 30% -29.1%
20% -35.0% 17% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.78 · official $20.56 · 1673 history records