Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:48:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
36 0x36ce…638b politics 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$25 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,085per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$6
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% −$60
economics 7% −$1
other 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 24 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$947) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$337
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage64d
Avg bet$1,085
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $363 $337 −$26 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $910 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,789 −$4 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,830 −$2 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,852 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $922 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,856 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $924 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $927 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 12 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $930 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $943 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $943 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $946 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $948 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $377 2h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $907 25h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $908 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $909 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $910 5d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $908 6d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $910 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $910 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $912 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $910 14d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $912 15d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $912 15d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $914 17d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $918 18d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $919 19d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $914 21d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $915 21d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $916 23d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $916 24d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $920 25d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $921 25d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $920 27d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $922 28d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $922 29d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $923 29d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $924 31d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $925 31d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $923 33d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $924 34d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $926 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $336.81 · official $336.81 (match) · 99 history records