Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:13:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36c9…3039 other 940 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$347 (-1%) realized −$350 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate73%628W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day63.0pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$3,032now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$176
7 days−$277
14 days−$827
30 days−$1,400
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$370
other 25% −$102
politics 13% −$426
world 8% +$157
crypto 8% −$181
finance 3% +$69
economics 2% +$15
tech 1% +$38
culture 1% +$1
weather 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -16.5% -24.4% 62% 23% -18.7%
≤30d 554 -19.2% -26.9% 59% 30% -20.6%
≤90d 857 -5.8% -14.8% 73% 34% -10.7%
all 857 -5.8% -14.8% 73% 34% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 34% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 14% -19.2%
15% -30.4% 9% -27.0%
20% -37.2% 7% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$3,032
Realized−$350
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses628 / 229
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions86
Markets (closed)857 / 940
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day63.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 86 History 857 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $250 $250 −$0 (-0%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 80¢ 85¢ $159 $167 +$9 (+6%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 64¢ 82¢ $80 $102 +$22 (+27%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 88¢ 95¢ $71 $77 +$5 (+8%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 93¢ 86¢ $73 $67 −$6 (-8%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 90¢ 100¢ $58 $64 +$6 (+11%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 89¢ 97¢ $59 $64 +$5 (+8%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 92¢ 97¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+6%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 88¢ 95¢ $58 $63 +$5 (+8%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 85¢ 72¢ $73 $61 −$12 (-16%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? No 89¢ 89¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 90¢ 82¢ $59 $54 −$5 (-9%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? No 80¢ 72¢ $60 $54 −$6 (-10%)
Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $50 $54 +$3 (+7%)
Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 97¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? No 97¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$1 (+3%)
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 89¢ 91¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $44 $48 +$4 (+9%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 85¢ 99¢ $40 $46 +$7 (+17%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 88¢ 100¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+13%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? No 87¢ 98¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+13%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 84¢ 94¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+11%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 80¢ 86¢ $40 $42 +$3 (+7%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 97¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese p Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prim Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 15 $20 −$14 -69%
Will Charles McCall win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary Jun 15 $19 +$2 +10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -5%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $39 $0 -1%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 15 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $40 +$8 +19%
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican prima Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 15 $221 +$15 +7%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 15 $191 −$61 -32%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 15 $57 +$5 +9%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $469 +$19 +4%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $421 −$10 -2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $39 +$6 +16%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $149 −$18 -12%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $269 −$80 -30%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $40 +$1 +3%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o Jun 13 $20 +$2 +8%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $20 +$2 +8%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 13 $20 +$5 +25%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 12 $16 $0 +3%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 20 million barrels per day in Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in May? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +18%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese p SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prim SELL No 100¢ $21 1h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL Yes 30¢ $6 1h
Will Charles McCall win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary SELL No 99¢ $21 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $19 1h
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $21 1h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 70¢ $17 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $24 1h
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $39 1h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 1h
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican prima SELL No 100¢ $52 1h
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $64 1h
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 60¢ $130 1h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY No 80¢ $60 11h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 89¢ $60 11h
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? BUY No 46¢ $4 11h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $250 12h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin BUY No 97¢ $40 13h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $40 15h
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 15h
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 22h
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? BUY No 46¢ $8 26h
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 28h
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 31h
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 31h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 85¢ $60 33h
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 34h
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? BUY No 46¢ $2 34h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 10¢ $1 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,032.26 · official $3,032.12 (match) · 3500 history records