Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:53:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
36 0x36c7…1be8 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$294 (+13%) realized +$278 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate92%11W / 1L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$18
sports 40% +$304
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +22.2% +10.5% 92% 75% +4.8%
≤30d 12 +22.2% +10.5% 92% 75% +4.8%
≤90d 12 +22.2% +10.5% 92% 75% +4.8%
all 12 +22.2% +10.5% 92% 75% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.5% 75% +4.8%
10% -0.0% 50% -5.2%
15% -9.7% 25% -14.4%
20% -18.6% 17% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$191 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$287
Realized+$278
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses11 / 1
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $271 $287 +$16 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $248 +$24 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $217 +$31 +14%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $187 +$40 +21%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $121 +$66 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $116 +$125 +107%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $301 −$191 -63%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $189 +$14 +7%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $142 +$47 +33%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $108 +$35 +32%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $173 +$46 +26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $146 +$27 +18%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 08 $103 +$43 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $272 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $272 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $248 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $217 5h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $227 9h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 82¢ $187 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $121 28h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $241 29h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $116 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $190 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 93¢ $189 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $189 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $142 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $142 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $108 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $108 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $110 4d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 79¢ $173 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $173 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 84¢ $146 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $146 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 70¢ $103 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.20 · official $287.20 (match) · 26 history records