Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:42:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36c6…2c1d crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized +$3 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +99% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +66% what you keep after slip
Net edge+66%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate56%29W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$82
14 days+$65
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+80.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +131.0% +109.0% 61% 44% -3.9%
≤30d 52 +98.9% +80.0% 56% 42% -6.5%
≤90d 52 +98.9% +80.0% 56% 42% -6.5%
all 52 +98.9% +80.0% 56% 42% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +80.0% 42% -6.5%
10% +62.7% 35% -15.5%
15% +47.0% 31% -23.6%
20% +32.6% 23% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +99% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +203% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses29 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage8d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET Up 48¢ 34¢ $24 $16 −$7 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $33 +$3 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $109 +$18 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $32 +$8 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET Jun 19 $108 +$27 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $24 +$11 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $124 +$51 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $33 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $141 −$39 -28%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $46 +$23 +51%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $80 −$18 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $28 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $58 +$29 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$63 +1985%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$5 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$43 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$24 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $47 +$40 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $45 +$58 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$4 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $25 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $25 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $19 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $19 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $37 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $32 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $21 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $53 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $43 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $42 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $7 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $35 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $24 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $71 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $55 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $87 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $36 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $36 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $36 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $36 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $33 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.20 · official $16.49 (match) · 141 history records