Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36bc…c33b world 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate35%24W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$14
other 24% −$7
politics 19% +$2
sports 14% −$7
economics 3% $0
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.8% -11.2% 50% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 20 +0.0% -9.5% 30% 10% -8.8%
≤90d 64 -2.6% -11.8% 36% 5% -9.1%
all 68 -5.0% -14.1% 35% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 6% -9.4%
10% -22.3% 1% -18.1%
15% -29.8% 1% -26.0%
20% -36.7% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses24 / 44
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage526d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 72¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $48 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $65 −$3 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $61 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $58 +$2 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $128 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $7 −$1 -10%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $40 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $156 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 01 $54 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $53 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $61 +$3 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $163 +$4 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $60 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $8 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $22 −$3 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $89 +$10 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $63 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $5 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $88 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $1 $0 +6%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $24 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $13 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $3 $0 +18%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $140 −$4 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $123 +$3 +2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $21 $0 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1 $0 -9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $1 $0 +8%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $91 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $202 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $54 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $17 $0 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $182 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $97 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $48 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $57 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $20 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $29 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $48 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 72¢ $62 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $65 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 96¢ $60 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 93¢ $58 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $2 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $27 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $57 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $22 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.34 · official $56.17 · 366 history records