Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
36 0x36bb…a210 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate64%25W / 14L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% $0
other 22% +$2
politics 7% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 4% +$3
weather 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 10% -9.4%
≤30d 18 +2.3% -7.5% 50% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 18 +2.3% -7.5% 50% 6% -9.4%
all 39 -2.4% -11.7% 64% 8% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 8% -8.9%
10% -20.2% 3% -17.6%
15% -27.9% 3% -25.6%
20% -34.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses25 / 14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage468d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 67¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $19 −$1 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $87 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $4 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $68 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $3 +$1 +38%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $26 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 $0 +11%
Will the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National minority? May 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon 250-499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Apr 03 $21 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 30 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $19 +$2 +9%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Did Kanye sell his twitter account? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 18 $2 $0 +7%
Will 'Opus' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 14 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 13 $17 $0 +0%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 12 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $14 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on March 10? Mar 10 $16 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $44 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $43 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $45 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $45 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $45 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $45 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $38 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $41 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $7 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $4 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 74¢ $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $45 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $45 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $42 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $42 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $26 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $12 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.08 · official $44.22 (match) · 108 history records