Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:14:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x36b6…e523
other · 111 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$59 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$30 · open +$31
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$966
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses41 / 25
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions44
Markets (closed)66 / 111
History coverage73d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 44 History 66 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days−$24
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $72 $75 +$3 (+4%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $61 $62 +$1 (+2%)
Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%? No 66¢ 78¢ $45 $53 +$8 (+17%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $49 $51 +$2 (+4%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+7%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 75¢ 82¢ $45 $49 +$4 (+10%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 79¢ $36 $41 +$5 (+13%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Negative GDP growth in 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1600.00 or higher at the end of December 2026? No 56¢ 48¢ $38 $33 −$5 (-13%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 71¢ 98¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+38%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 78¢ 81¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+4%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 50¢ 60¢ $22 $26 +$4 (+18%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+9%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 64¢ 75¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 48¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $18 $20 +$1 (+7%)
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 97¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+24%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $7 +$3 +37%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 08 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $36 −$36 -100%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the May 31 $63 +$8 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $28 +$3 +12%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A May 28 $18 $0 -1%
Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the M May 27 $16 +$3 +19%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 27 $9 +$5 +53%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? May 21 $16 +$12 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 20? May 20 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i May 17 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Germany come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $40 +$1 +3%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 12 $37 −$4 -11%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 12 $40 $0 +1%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 2.2% and 2 May 11 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%? May 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 600 council seat elections in May 08 $80 +$21 +27%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 08 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? May 08 $162 +$9 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 08 $25 −$3 -11%
Will Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026 be at least 1.3%? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 06 $10 −$3 -25%
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.5% and 2.7%? May 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Romania No-Confidence vote passes? May 05 $30 +$1 +2%
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? May 05 $55 +$3 +6%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 05 $15 +$6 +39%
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? May 02 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 700 council seat elections in Apr 30 $20 +$6 +29%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 30 $50 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 30 $41 +$11 +28%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 27 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Donald Trump be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee? Apr 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Apr 22 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $5 −$3 -58%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Apr 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $48 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 16? Apr 16 $25 −$20 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 16? Apr 16 $190 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 16? Apr 16 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 16 $9 +$11 +122%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 31% +$2
other 26% +$29
politics 21% +$3
sports 11% +$16
economics 4% +$5
world 4% −$4
finance 1% +$11
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 38¢ $3 22h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 82¢ $5 27h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $4 41h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 73¢ $2 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 73¢ $1 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 73¢ $4 2d
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $9 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 73¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2d
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $10 3d
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 69¢ $10 3d
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be less than 1600.00 at the BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 3d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $17 4d
Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%? BUY No 50¢ $9 4d
Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%? BUY No 50¢ $10 4d
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 5d
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1600.00 or higher at the BUY No 53¢ $0 5d
Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%? BUY No 85¢ $17 6d
Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%? BUY No 90¢ $9 6d
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1600.00 or higher at the BUY No 53¢ $11 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $28 8d
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 72¢ $14 8d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 9d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +17.8% +6.6% 75% 50% -6.2%
≤30d 17 +11.3% +0.7% 76% 59% -8.3%
≤90d 66 -2.3% -11.6% 62% 30% -8.4%
all 66 -2.3% -11.6% 62% 30% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 30% -8.4%
10% -20.1% 18% -17.2%
15% -27.8% 11% -25.2%
20% -34.9% 5% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $965.81 · official $968.87 (match) · 474 history records