Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:19:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36b3…8527 other 260 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%17W / 243L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$20
14 days−$32
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$42
sports 23% −$19
culture 9% −$9
politics 9% −$7
economics 6% −$4
crypto 6% −$4
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 59 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 260 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses17 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)260 / 260
History coverage141d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 260 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $708 −$2 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $554 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $534 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $486 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $514 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $593 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $287 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $142 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $137 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $417 −$2 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $163 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $264 $0 +0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $471 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $351 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $411 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $587 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $368 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $767 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $439 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $483 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $830 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 11 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $143 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $161 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $367 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $566 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $84 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 06 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $313 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $69 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $297 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $556 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $429 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $274 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $245 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 19m
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 1h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 4h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 6h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $61 9h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $61 10h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 16h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 17h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 19h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 21h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 22h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 24h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 37h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 39h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 40h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 41h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 43h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 45h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 46h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $62 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $62 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1487 history records