Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:29:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
36 0x36b3…e421 sports 1208 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,115 (+3%) realized +$4,046 · open +$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%641W / 549L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day73.6pace
Fees−$1,483est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,708now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$279
7 days−$888
14 days+$3,577
30 days+$2,719
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$664
other 16% +$2,149
crypto 1% −$228
world 0% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 185 -8.3% -17.1% 44% 44% -13.6%
≤30d 1124 +2.4% -7.3% 55% 54% -7.7%
≤90d 1190 +1.6% -8.1% 54% 53% -7.8%
all 1190 +1.6% -8.1% 54% 53% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 53% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 46% -16.6%
15% -24.9% 38% -24.7%
20% -32.3% 32% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$81 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$1,708
Realized+$4,046
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses641 / 549
Est. fees paid−$1,483
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1190 / 1208
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$115
Trades / day73.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 1190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 48¢ 100¢ $143 $301 +$158 (+110%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Qatar 71¢ 70¢ $213 $212 −$2 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 52¢ $162 $158 −$5 (-3%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 72¢ $146 $147 +$1 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $147 $146 −$2 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Under 46¢ 44¢ $140 $134 −$6 (-4%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $132 $131 −$2 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 60¢ 60¢ $90 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) PortlandFire 53¢ 55¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+4%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Over 48¢ 37¢ $97 $74 −$22 (-23%)
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) New York Liberty 54¢ 51¢ $54 $51 −$3 (-6%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 30¢ 32¢ $45 $49 +$4 (+8%)
Will GV CD San José win on 2026-05-12? Yes 66¢ 48¢ $27 $19 −$8 (-28%)
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Connecticut Sun 50¢ 55¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Thiago Seyboth Wild 55¢ 50¢ $17 $15 −$1 (-8%)
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Las Vegas Aces 54¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-99%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5 Under 31¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $209 +$91 +44%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $218 +$82 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $141 +$160 +114%
Set Handicap: Heide (-1.5) vs Mrva (+1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$3 +140%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $94 −$93 -98%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $79 +$47 +60%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $54 +$19 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$200 +197%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $195 −$195 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $121 −$121 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $94 +$208 +221%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $107 +$78 +73%
Set Handicap: Jade (-1.5) vs Zhu (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $196 −$196 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $35 −$34 -98%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $93 +$210 +226%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 16 $162 −$160 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $120 +$182 +152%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 16 $75 +$76 +101%
Bu vs. Virtanen: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $110 −$4 -3%
Bu vs. Virtanen: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $141 −$5 -3%
Schoenhaus vs. Tien: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Schoenhaus vs. Tien: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Cuiabá EC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $350 −$350 -100%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $195 +$106 +55%
Spread: CD Universidad Católica (-1.5) Jun 15 $14 +$20 +146%
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Mochizuki (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Keflavik IF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Stabaek IF vs. Egersunds IK: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $111 −$111 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $139 −$139 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) Jun 14 $153 +$149 +97%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 165.5 Jun 14 $141 +$161 +114%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $201 +$76 +38%
Spread: Keflavik IF (-1.5) Jun 14 $73 +$35 +48%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $11 +$12 +105%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $513 +$241 +47%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $308 −$7 -2%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $241 −$90 -38%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $307 −$4 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $67 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $68 2h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 55¢ $17 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $82 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $39 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $81 2h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 46¢ $94 3h
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) BUY PortlandFire 53¢ $81 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $108 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $75 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $83 3h
Set Handicap: Heide (-1.5) vs Mrva (+1.5) BUY Heide 41¢ $2 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $70 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $75 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $71 5h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 71¢ $107 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $72 6h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 48¢ $98 7h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 71¢ $108 7h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 46¢ $142 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $74 7h
Spread: New York Liberty (-9.5) BUY New York Liberty 54¢ $55 8h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 54¢ $3 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $104 9h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $109 9h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $109 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $105 10h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) BUY Connecticut Sun 50¢ $15 11h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 30¢ $46 13h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 73¢ $54 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,708.44 · official $1,706.47 (match) · 3500 history records