Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:02:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
36 0x36b3…fc6c sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,424 (+24%) realized +$1,613 · open −$189
Gross ROI / mkt +81% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +51% what you keep after slip
Net edge+51%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1,101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$23
other 40% +$1,450
crypto 3% −$200
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+64.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +81.3% +64.1% 53% 53% +19.4%
≤30d 32 +81.3% +64.1% 53% 53% +19.4%
≤90d 32 +81.3% +64.1% 53% 53% +19.4%
all 32 +81.3% +64.1% 53% 53% +19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +64.1% 53% +19.4%
10% +48.4% 53% +8.0%
15% +34.0% 50% -2.4%
20% +20.9% 50% -12.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +81% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +139% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$126 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,101
Realized+$1,613
Unrealized−$189
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions13
Markets (closed)32 / 46
History coverage5d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 55¢ 93¢ $200 $340 +$140 (+70%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $120 $118 −$2 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $120 $117 −$3 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $120 $117 −$3 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 19¢ 20¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 40¢ 38¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 33¢ 32¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 33¢ 30¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 IR Iran? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Yes $40 $2 −$38 (-95%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 12¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Under 34¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $253 +$138 +55%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $103 +$612 +596%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$60 +60%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $112 +$232 +206%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $104 −$102 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$34 +34%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $810 +$587 +72%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $406 −$400 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 +$184 +596%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $21 +$265 +1290%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 +$189 +93%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $304 +$296 +97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$131 +129%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $102 +$176 +172%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$91 +90%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$142 +140%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$66 +325%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $123 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $123 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $123 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $203 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $21 13h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes $21 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $102 13h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 13h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $21 13h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $21 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $153 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 19¢ $102 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $102 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $102 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $103 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 14¢ $103 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $204 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $203 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $104 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 25h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 25h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $102 25h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 25h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $112 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,100.82 · official $1,100.82 (match) · 71 history records