Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:12:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
36 0x36b1…227a crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$181 (+2%) realized +$175 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate96%44W / 2L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$345now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% +$16
other 19% +$22
tech 19% +$19
world 7% +$7
politics 7% +$110
economics 5% +$5
finance 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.3% -6.6% 100% 0% -6.6%
≤30d 3 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 7 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
all 46 +5.1% -4.9% 96% 7% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 7% -7.4%
10% -14.0% 7% -16.2%
15% -22.3% 7% -24.3%
20% -29.9% 7% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$29 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.95 per $1 lost it wins $6.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$345
Realized+$175
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses44 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage622d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $179 $179 −$0 (-0%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $160 $166 +$6 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 28 $171 +$6 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $160 +$2 +2%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? Jun 08 $180 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 16 $144 +$2 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 16 $200 +$4 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 12 $150 +$2 +1%
Will Solana dip to $60 in March? Apr 12 $180 +$1 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? Mar 30 $180 +$1 +1%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase March 3-9? Mar 15 $150 +$2 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 15 $177 +$3 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 07 $140 +$8 +6%
Will BNB dip to $300 in February? Mar 07 $171 +$2 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? Feb 24 $130 +$1 +1%
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? Feb 12 $300 +$7 +2%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jan 20 $16 +$2 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 29-January 4? Jan 20 $280 +$1 +0%
Ethereum all time high by December 31? Jan 03 $66 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 03 $231 +$1 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 12 $300 +$2 +1%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4? Nov 25 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 60% and 65% of the vote in the 2025 NY Nov 25 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Nov 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $246 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on October 16? Oct 27 $232 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30? Oct 16 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $98K September 8–14? Oct 16 $124 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $4000 on August 15? Sep 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $160 on August 15? Sep 12 $183 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 3 Aug 14 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $106K on July 16? Aug 14 $155 +$1 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 20–27? Jul 14 $266 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 23 $255 +$1 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 12 $80 $0 +1%
Will Ireland win Eurovision 2025? Jun 12 $130 $0 +0%
Will SOL flip ETH before May? May 11 $68 $0 +0%
Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 11 $80 $0 +0%
Will another party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Elect May 11 $130 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $300 in March? Apr 09 $266 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 15 $280 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? Feb 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Feb 26 $220 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 11 $307 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 13 $5 +$8 +150%
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? Nov 13 $8 +$6 +70%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 13 $185 +$125 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $179 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 97¢ $171 19d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $160 19d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $160 43d
Will Putin visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $180 43d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $200 76d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 98¢ $144 76d
Will Solana dip to $60 in March? BUY No 100¢ $180 90d
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $180 104d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 99¢ $150 104d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase March 3-9? BUY Yes 99¢ $150 113d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? BUY No 98¢ $177 113d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $140 123d
Will BNB dip to $300 in February? BUY No 99¢ $171 136d
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $130 136d
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $300 158d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 29-January 4? BUY No 100¢ $280 175d
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY Yes 91¢ $16 175d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 99¢ $231 193d
Ethereum all time high by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $66 193d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 99¢ $302 197d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 98¢ $300 214d
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 60% and 65% of the vote in the 2025 NY SELL No 100¢ $201 214d
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 60% and 65% of the vote in the 2025 NY BUY No 99¢ $200 235d
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4? BUY Yes 99¢ $95 235d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? SELL No 100¢ $50 235d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $246 243d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on October 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $232 254d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30? BUY No 98¢ $110 288d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? BUY No 100¢ $50 288d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $345.00 · official $345.00 (match) · 96 history records