Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
36 0x36ac…9d50 crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$127 (-6%) realized −$180 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%34W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$33
sports 32% −$58
crypto 27% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -5.6% -14.6% 33% 0% -15.7%
≤30d 3 -5.6% -14.6% 33% 0% -15.7%
≤90d 3 -5.6% -14.6% 33% 0% -15.7%
all 82 -4.4% -13.5% 41% 40% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 40% -16.1%
10% -21.8% 39% -24.1%
15% -29.3% 35% -31.5%
20% -36.3% 29% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$19 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized−$180
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses34 / 48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage162d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 73¢ 96¢ $171 $224 +$53 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $193 −$21 -11%
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $101 −$8 -8%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $98 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs 9z (BO3) - Ace South American Mas Feb 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-02-02? Feb 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Jan 30 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Pistons vs. Warriors Jan 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $15 +$8 +56%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $15 +$18 +117%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-02-01? Jan 26 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 26 $15 +$27 +178%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-01-26? Jan 26 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs RED Canids (BO3) - Circuit X Betboom Redemption Jan 25 $10 +$35 +347%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $17 +$83 +488%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - January 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 25 $25 +$18 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 25 $20 +$11 +57%
Solana Up or Down - January 24, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jan 25 $41 +$16 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jan 25 $30 −$30 -98%
XRP Up or Down - January 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jan 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jan 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jan 25 $20 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jan 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jan 25 $16 −$16 -98%
Solana Up or Down - January 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jan 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jan 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Lightning vs. Blue Jackets Jan 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 24 $15 +$6 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 24 $15 +$16 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 24 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 24 $20 +$18 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 24 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 24 $40 +$9 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jan 24 $20 +$6 +30%
Solana Up or Down - January 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jan 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 24 $30 +$24 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $172 1h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $172 1h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $193 4d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $94 4d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $100 4d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $98 5d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs 9z (BO3) - Ace South American Mas BUY Gaimin Gladiators 25¢ $20 140d
Will Racing Club win on 2026-02-02? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 143d
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina BUY Sabalenka 60¢ $28 146d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 52¢ $15 147d
Pistons vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 55¢ $20 147d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 149d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 149d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 149d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 149d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 149d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Invictus Gaming 35¢ $15 150d
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-02-01? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 150d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-01-26? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 151d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY Team Vitality 34¢ $18 151d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY Team Vitality 46¢ $27 151d
LoL: Shifters vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY Los Ratones 36¢ $15 151d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 151d
Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-01-25? BUY Yes 9¢ $19 151d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-01-25? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 151d
Solana Up or Down - January 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 151d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs RED Canids (BO3) - Circuit X Betboom Redemption BUY 9z 32¢ $8 152d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs RED Canids (BO3) - Circuit X Betboom Redemption BUY 9z 10¢ $2 152d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 152d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.15 · official $224.15 (match) · 136 history records