Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:08:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36ab…d5a7 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$45 (-8%) realized −$40 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate16%5W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$57
14 days−$58
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$44
sports 8% −$13
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -21.9% -29.4% 13% 9% -12.5%
≤30d 32 -27.9% -34.7% 16% 9% -10.3%
≤90d 32 -27.9% -34.7% 16% 9% -10.3%
all 32 -27.9% -34.7% 16% 9% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 9% -10.3%
10% -41.0% 6% -18.9%
15% -46.7% 3% -26.7%
20% -51.9% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses5 / 27
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage25d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $87 −$49 -56%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 $0 -2%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 −$1 -9%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $72 +$2 +3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -17%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -76%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$10 +146%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $75 +$11 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$14 -27%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 $0 -2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $16 −$2 -12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 $0 -8%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $50 +$11 +22%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $25 −$1 -5%
Will SC União Torreense win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $6 −$5 -87%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 12¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 11¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $40 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $25 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $5 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $4 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $0 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No $25 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No $0 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No $0 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No $0 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No $4 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No $10 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 22¢ $36 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $0 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 6h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $5 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.12 (match) · 112 history records