Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:22:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36a9…c1d3 weather 1122 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,946 (-11%) realized −$2,945 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate94%1051W / 69L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 105d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$583
other 33% +$152
weather 24% −$85
crypto 6% −$88
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +7.7% -2.6% 100% 36% -4.9%
≤30d 96 -7.8% -16.6% 88% 7% -13.5%
≤90d 854 -2.1% -11.4% 97% 1% -12.3%
all 1120 -2.6% -11.9% 94% 2% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 2% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 1% -20.1%
15% -28.0% 0% -27.8%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized−$2,945
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1051 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1120 / 1122
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 88¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$20 +10%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $960 +$12 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$17 +17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $200 +$5 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $200 +$8 +4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $200 +$15 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 +$6 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $601 +$22 +4%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $301 +$40 +13%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $300 +$7 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $120 +$12 +10%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $151 +$53 +35%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $200 +$9 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 Jun 13 $61 −$36 -60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $610 +$8 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,376 −$726 -53%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $40 −$9 -23%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $861 +$30 +4%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $19 +$4 +19%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $501 +$46 +9%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 −$30 -59%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $160 +$12 +7%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $130 +$7 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or below on May 19? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 19? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on May 19? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 20? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 20? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 20? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 19? May 26 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 18? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 20? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 19? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 19? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 19? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 18? May 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 19? May 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 19? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on May 19? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $130 +$13 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 19? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 18? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on May 19? May 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 19? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on May 1 May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $100 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $100 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 5h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $100 9h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $100 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $100 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $900 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $60 34h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $100 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 37h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 96¢ $200 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $100 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $100 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $60 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $601 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 98¢ $300 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $301 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $300 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 96¢ $100 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 95¢ $100 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $34 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 SELL 25¢ $24 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $500 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 59¢ $61 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $110 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.17 · official $199.17 (match) · 3500 history records