Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:13:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
36 0x36a7…b6e9 sports 37 markets active 3h ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$49,642 (+22%) realized +$49,642 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%21W / 15L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$6,082per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$1,847est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,413
7 days−$22,909
14 days−$22,909
30 days+$48,730
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$24,547
other 48% +$73,759
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -17.4% -25.3% 40% 40% -30.4%
≤30d 33 +22.9% +11.2% 58% 52% +10.2%
≤90d 36 +23.0% +11.3% 58% 53% +10.3%
all 36 +23.0% +11.3% 58% 53% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.3% 53% +10.3%
10% +0.7% 53% -0.2%
15% ← realistic here -9.1% 53% -9.9%
20% -18.0% 50% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$10,653) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +51% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,472 vs −$5,780 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$49,642
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses21 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1,847
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage30d
Avg bet$6,082
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $23,131 +$17,144 +74%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3,006 −$3,006 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $16,324 −$16,243 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21,911 +$14,009 +64%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $879 −$868 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $16,566 −$16,566 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $17,434 −$17,434 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? AN Jun 12 $103 −$66 -64%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $3 +$4 +138%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $5,948 +$5,066 +85%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,651 −$1,651 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $8,767 −$8,767 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $5,291 −$5,285 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $13,548 +$16,558 +122%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $847 +$829 +98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $4,815 −$558 -12%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $15,364 +$13,595 +88%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 22 $345 −$345 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 May 22 $863 +$1,515 +176%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 21 $1,065 +$1,533 +144%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $12,546 +$19,624 +156%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5 May 19 $9,669 +$10,475 +108%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 May 17 $3,179 −$3,062 -96%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $4,918 +$7,571 +154%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 17 $940 +$581 +62%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs GamerLegion (+2.5) May 17 $315 +$132 +42%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 17 $4,527 +$29 +1%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10,653 −$10,653 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $9,400 +$10,579 +112%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5,367 +$15,608 +291%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,813 −$1,779 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 16 $2,018 +$45 +2%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) May 16 $445 +$417 +94%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $608 +$482 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 15 $555 −$417 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $20,296 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $19,979 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $14,417 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $478 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $142 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $207 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $44 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $28 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $138 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $27 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $4 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $6 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $40 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $58 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $103 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $3 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $67 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $7 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $1,350 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $14 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $14 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $2 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $173 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $552 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $679 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $1 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $3 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $4 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $35 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $262 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 651 history records