Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36a5…5e11 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$295 (-36%) realized −$282 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 112d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$71
sports 39% −$237
world 6% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-62.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -53.8% -58.2% 20% 20% -50.6%
≤90d 10 -53.8% -58.2% 20% 20% -50.6%
all 11 -58.0% -62.0% 18% 18% -51.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.0% 18% -51.3%
10% -65.7% 18% -56.0%
15% -69.0% 18% -60.3%
20% -72.0% 18% -64.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$52 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$282
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage112d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$34 -97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $152 −$79 -52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$65 +127%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 −$93 -92%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$105 +105%
WTT - Men's Singles: Chuqin Wang vs Yun-Ju Lin Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $5 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 7d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 68¢ $101 7d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 67¢ $71 7d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $51 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 45¢ $116 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 5¢ $8 7d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $51 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $89 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 9d
WTT - Men's Singles: Chuqin Wang vs Yun-Ju Lin BUY Lin 95¢ $10 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.93 · official $86.93 (match) · 21 history records