Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:52:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
36 0x36a3…5b2d sports 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$78 (-1%) realized −$59 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%25W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$461now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$253
7 days+$329
14 days+$1,601
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$23
other 2% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +21.1% +9.5% 75% 75% +15.0%
≤30d 47 -19.0% -26.7% 53% 49% -10.6%
≤90d 47 -19.0% -26.7% 53% 49% -10.6%
all 47 -19.0% -26.7% 53% 49% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 49% -10.6%
10% -33.7% 43% -19.1%
15% -40.1% 38% -27.0%
20% -46.0% 19% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$159 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$461
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses25 / 22
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions5
Markets (closed)47 / 52
History coverage27d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $400 $404 +$4 (+1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $12 −$8 (-39%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $406 +$427 +105%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $303 +$125 +41%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $304 −$300 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $202 +$76 +38%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $202 +$80 +40%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $302 +$108 +36%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $202 +$69 +34%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 −$96 -95%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $151 +$32 +21%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $303 +$151 +50%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $202 +$84 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $202 +$88 +43%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $404 +$168 +42%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $303 +$166 +55%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $304 +$188 +62%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $301 +$29 +10%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $302 +$60 +20%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $303 +$163 +54%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $303 +$144 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $303 −$300 -99%
Angola vs. Central African Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $305 +$332 +109%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $304 +$204 +67%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $304 +$188 +62%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $202 −$200 -99%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $101 +$8 +8%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $201 −$81 -40%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $201 −$2 -1%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $479 +$138 +29%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $31 −$30 -98%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $333 +$174 +52%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $336 −$330 -98%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $334 −$330 -99%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $281 +$55 +20%
Albania vs. Israel: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $178 −$174 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 May 28 $200 −$197 -99%
Club Bolívar vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 2.5 May 28 $200 −$197 -98%
Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 1.5 May 27 $200 −$199 -99%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 27 $199 −$196 -98%
Club Nacional de Football vs. CD Coquimbo Unido: O/U 2.5 May 27 $18 −$18 -98%
CA Lanús vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5 May 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 2.5 May 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $406 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $406 17h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $428 18h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $303 19h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $304 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $202 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $411 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $202 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $202 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $302 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $317 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $202 8d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 8d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over $5 8d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $202 8d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $203 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $151 8d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $454 9d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $303 9d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $202 9d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $290 10d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 52¢ $203 10d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 10d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 10d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 10d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 10d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $202 10d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $404 11d
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $491 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $461.38 · official $461.38 (match) · 91 history records