Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:12:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36a3…11a7 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$482 (-9%) realized −$469 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate14%3W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$141
7 days−$493
14 days−$493
30 days−$493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$482
sports 27% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -21.9% -29.3% 15% 10% -18.8%
≤30d 20 -21.9% -29.3% 15% 10% -18.8%
≤90d 22 -29.0% -35.7% 14% 9% -19.0%
all 22 -29.0% -35.7% 14% 9% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 9% -19.0%
10% -41.9% 9% -26.7%
15% -47.5% 5% -33.8%
20% -52.6% 5% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$34 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized−$469
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses3 / 19
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage45d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $98 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $109 $96 −$12 (-11%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $230 +$126 +55%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $163 −$4 -2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $169 −$4 -2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $510 −$11 -2%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $153 −$4 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $376 −$2 -0%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $384 −$2 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $473 −$239 -51%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $466 −$116 -25%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $115 −$114 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $334 −$7 -2%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $353 −$7 -2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $377 −$2 -0%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $306 −$8 -3%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $188 +$1 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $201 −$91 -45%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $163 −$4 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $49 +$14 +28%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Team Secret (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha May 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 48m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 50m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $99 6h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL No 79¢ $159 34h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 82¢ $165 34h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 84¢ $169 34h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL No 74¢ $148 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $375 34h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL No 96¢ $383 34h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $390 34h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $2 34h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $2 34h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $2 34h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $2 34h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $196 34h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $192 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $188 34h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $151 34h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $167 34h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $192 34h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $161 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $188 34h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $171 34h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $196 34h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 36h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 36h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $129 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.30 · official $223.30 (match) · 117 history records