Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
36 0x369f…798b sports 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$157 (+2%) realized +$158 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%52W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$185
7 days−$185
14 days−$288
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$239
other 9% +$87
crypto 5% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -82.8% -84.4% 9% 9% -69.0%
≤30d 169 +5.6% -4.4% 31% 31% -11.1%
≤90d 169 +5.6% -4.4% 31% 31% -11.1%
all 169 +5.6% -4.4% 31% 31% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 31% -11.1%
10% -13.6% 30% -19.6%
15% -21.9% 29% -27.3%
20% -29.6% 29% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$30 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$158
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses52 / 117
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions2
Markets (closed)169 / 171
History coverage22d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $51 +$45 +89%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $47 −$46 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$4 -7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 +$13 +262%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 +$75 +365%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $31 +$41 +134%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 −$1 -1%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $101 +$87 +86%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $81 −$80 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $411 +$103 +25%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $31 +$53 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 12¢ $5 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $102 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $96 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 6¢ $10 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $20 4h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 5¢ $10 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $10 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $31 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 4h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $102 4h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 23¢ $47 8d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 46¢ $47 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $12 8d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 26¢ $10 8d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 47¢ $30 8d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $51 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $31 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 8d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $5 8d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 21¢ $20 8d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $31 8d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 52¢ $51 9d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 41¢ $101 9d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 40¢ $102 9d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $31 9d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.75 · official $103.75 (match) · 245 history records