Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:54:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3697…9a52 other 244 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 230L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$47
sports 23% −$19
culture 7% −$8
politics 7% −$7
economics 6% −$3
crypto 5% −$4
world 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 243 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)243 / 244
History coverage138d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 18 $176 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $399 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $232 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $173 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $127 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $308 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $214 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $203 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $272 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $463 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $133 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $437 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $397 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $320 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $478 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $436 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $309 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $415 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $186 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $226 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $406 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $635 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $403 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $558 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 04 $343 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $138 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $139 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $918 −$2 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $485 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $135 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 1h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 3h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $57 4h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $57 5h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 7h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 8h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 10h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 11h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $48 11h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 13h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $58 14h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 16h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 18h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 20h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 22h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 23h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 25h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $58 29h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $58 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $58 34h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 38h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 40h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 45h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $59 46h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.89 · official $4.89 (match) · 1449 history records