Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:40:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3695…c66c sports 91 markets active 6d ago coverage 10d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$747 (+0%) realized +$747 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%43W / 48L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,976per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$6,072est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$3,975
crypto 1% −$1,445
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -24.8% -31.9% 40% 40% -31.0%
≤30d 91 +4.4% -5.6% 47% 47% -10.9%
≤90d 91 +4.4% -5.6% 47% 47% -10.9%
all 91 +4.4% -5.6% 47% 47% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 47% -10.9%
10% -14.6% 45% -19.4%
15% ← realistic here -22.8% 43% -27.2%
20% -30.4% 41% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$5,803) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +27% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3,754 vs −$3,476 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$747
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses43 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$6,072
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage10d
Avg bet$3,976
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $5,183 −$1,523 -29%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $6,077 −$6,077 -100%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 10 $4,060 −$4,060 -100%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone Jun 10 $4,018 −$4,018 -100%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 10 $3,972 +$3,620 +91%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 10 $4,092 +$3,000 +73%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $3,780 +$2,976 +79%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 10 $6,018 +$687 +11%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $6,977 −$5,087 -73%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 10 $4,030 −$4,030 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $4,410 +$4,456 +101%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 09 $1,023 −$1,023 -100%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $2,472 +$2,583 +104%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Jonas Forejtek Jun 09 $12,439 −$2,857 -23%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $2,879 −$2,879 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $4,203 +$5,230 +124%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Pavel Kotov Jun 09 $2,188 +$3,929 +180%
Cattolica: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Matej Dodig Jun 09 $5,862 −$5,862 -100%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Sergio Callejon Jun 09 $2,882 −$2,803 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $3,479 −$3,479 -100%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 09 $10,878 −$10,878 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $6,074 −$5,452 -90%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $6,644 +$9,717 +146%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $5,803 −$5,803 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 08 $1,430 −$1,430 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $2,923 −$2,923 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $3,096 −$2,730 -88%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $7,965 −$7,965 -100%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 07 $7,040 −$7,040 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Hanyu Guo Jun 07 $3,920 −$3,920 -100%
Centurion 2: Philip Henning vs Alexander Donski Jun 07 $723 +$885 +122%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 07 $6,187 +$11,855 +192%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $6,047 −$6,047 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $6,904 +$5,354 +78%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $5,541 +$1,357 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 06 $4,507 +$1,036 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $3,009 −$3,009 -100%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 06 $4,706 −$204 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 06 $1,714 +$1,300 +76%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $4,134 −$3,851 -93%
Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan Jun 06 $2,958 +$2,611 +88%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Philip Henning Jun 06 $3,008 −$3,008 -100%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Petr Bar Biryukov Jun 06 $12,167 +$9,782 +80%
Heilbronn: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Luka Mikrut Jun 06 $3,862 −$3,862 -100%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 06 $1,351 +$1,467 +109%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 05 $5,982 +$4,959 +83%
Centurion 2: Giles Hussey vs Philip Henning Jun 05 $3,295 −$3,295 -100%
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava Jun 05 $6,117 +$10,937 +179%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 05 $4,000 +$5,109 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 64¢ $1,015 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Washington Nationals 99¢ $1,008 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 63¢ $5,063 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Washington Nationals 99¢ $2,653 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 46¢ $5,183 6d
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria SELL Federico Coria 100¢ $7,592 6d
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 52¢ $3,972 6d
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 50¢ $2,030 6d
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 50¢ $2,030 6d
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng SELL Mark Lajal 100¢ $7,092 6d
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng BUY Mark Lajal 57¢ $3,886 6d
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng BUY Mark Lajal 59¢ $206 6d
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone BUY Franco Agamenone 51¢ $1,725 6d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens SELL Anastasia Potapova 100¢ $6,756 6d
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Franco Agamenone BUY Franco Agamenone 22¢ $2,293 6d
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax SELL Thomas Faurel 100¢ $2,305 6d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens BUY Anastasia Potapova 43¢ $4 6d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens BUY Anastasia Potapova 50¢ $1,647 6d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens BUY Anastasia Potapova 46¢ $243 6d
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu SELL Yibing Wu 13¢ $1,891 6d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens BUY Anastasia Potapova 62¢ $1,885 6d
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu BUY Yibing Wu 46¢ $6,977 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 47¢ $13 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 49¢ $4,397 7d
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax SELL Thomas Faurel 51¢ $4,401 7d
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 57¢ $4,030 7d
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Karim Bennani 22¢ $1,023 7d
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato SELL Federico Bondioli 100¢ $5,055 7d
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Federico Bondioli 48¢ $2,472 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 294 history records