Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:54:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3693…d79e other 34 markets active 1d ago coverage 379d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$81,967 (+50%) realized +$84,062 · open −$2,095
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%9W / 17L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$4,789per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1,303est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$21,564now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85,033
7 days+$85,033
14 days+$85,033
30 days+$85,033
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$50,438
other 27% −$9,745
world 19% +$32,535
politics 3% +$6,230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +55.6% +40.7% 75% 75% +60.7%
≤30d 4 +55.6% +40.7% 75% 75% +60.7%
≤90d 4 +55.6% +40.7% 75% 75% +60.7%
all 26 -17.4% -25.3% 35% 35% +44.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 35% +44.2%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 35% +30.4%
15% -39.0% 31% +17.8%
20% -45.0% 31% +6.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +59% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$3,463) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -29% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12,735 vs −$1,945 · ×6.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.47 per $1 lost it wins $3.47
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

379d coverage
Net worth$21,564
Realized+$84,062
Unrealized−$2,095
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses9 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,303
Open positions8
Markets (closed)26 / 34
History coverage379d
Avg bet$4,789
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11,900 $12,451 +$551 (+5%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6,500 $4,663 −$1,837 (-28%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 42¢ 46¢ $1,493 $1,618 +$124 (+8%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $735 $1,011 +$276 (+37%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,031 $957 −$73 (-7%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,136 $465 −$671 (-59%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $270 $202 −$68 (-25%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $594 $197 −$397 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30,574 +$32,760 +107%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15,532 −$15,532 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $32,938 +$29,570 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30,510 +$38,235 +125%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Jan 21 $764 −$170 -22%
Will Anthony Joshua win by KO/TKO/DQ? Jan 07 $571 +$189 +33%
Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 1? Dec 19 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 2? Dec 19 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 24 $1,743 −$1,743 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-17? Sep 18 $1,441 +$1,087 +75%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? Sep 17 $666 +$782 +117%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? Jul 05 $350 −$350 -100%
Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 05 $2,361 −$1,344 -57%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? Jul 05 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Angela / Merkel" during Merz events on June 5? Jun 24 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Jamal Musiala be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World C Jun 24 $1,683 −$1,683 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Nuclear" during Merz events on June 5? Jun 24 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Big beautiful bill" during Merz events on June Jun 24 $294 −$294 -100%
Will Germany beat France? Jun 24 $3,869 −$3,869 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 18 $3,464 −$3,463 -100%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 15 $549 −$549 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Drone" during Merz events on June 5? Jun 15 $93 +$99 +107%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open? Jun 15 $3,570 +$3,430 +96%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 05 $1,663 −$1,663 -100%
French Open: Zverev vs. Djokovic Jun 04 $1,000 −$91 -9%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $2,593 +$8,465 +326%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $16,250 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $14,324 27h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 49¢ $508 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 49¢ $1,630 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 49¢ $1,520 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 49¢ $1,820 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 42¢ $23 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 42¢ $7 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 42¢ $1 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 42¢ $7 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 42¢ $7 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 42¢ $69 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 42¢ $3 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 42¢ $7 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 42¢ $35 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 42¢ $35 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 42¢ $1,322 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,170 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 48¢ $2,283 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 50¢ $4,279 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $2,499 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 50¢ $161 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 50¢ $116 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 50¢ $168 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 50¢ $344 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 50¢ $1,202 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 51¢ $890 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 51¢ $5,426 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 50¢ $168 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 50¢ $471 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,564.03 · official $21,564.03 (match) · 297 history records