Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:54:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
36 0x368f…fd94 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,976 (-73%) realized −$6,991 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -83% what you keep after slip
Net edge-83%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$796per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$1,993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$6,637
sports 8% −$284
crypto 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-82.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -80.1% -82.0% 9% 9% -93.9%
≤30d 11 -80.1% -82.0% 9% 9% -93.9%
≤90d 11 -80.1% -82.0% 9% 9% -93.9%
all 11 -80.1% -82.0% 9% 9% -93.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -82.0% 9% -93.9%
10% -83.7% 9% -94.4%
15% -85.3% 0% -95.0%
20% -86.7% 0% -95.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -93% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -80% · $-wt -93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$714 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1,993
Realized−$6,991
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage6d
Avg bet$796
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1,978 $1,993 +$15 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $391 −$387 -99%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $204 −$204 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Qatar? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $6,040 −$6,040 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $403 +$104 +26%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $6 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,997 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 69¢ $391 3d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $204 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 79¢ $403 4d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Qatar? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $101 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $6,040 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,992.84 · official $1,992.84 (match) · 20 history records