Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x368e…aa4f crypto 330 markets active 19h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+1%) realized +$29 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate76%241W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$566now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$23
weather 25% +$12
other 17% +$32
politics 7% +$4
crypto 4% +$1
tech 3% +$5
finance 2% +$7
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +7.4% -2.8% 100% 33% -1.9%
≤30d 29 -3.1% -12.3% 90% 14% -8.4%
≤90d 218 -3.7% -12.9% 81% 17% -10.1%
all 318 +0.9% -8.7% 76% 28% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 28% -9.0%
10% -17.4% 19% -17.7%
15% -25.4% 12% -25.6%
20% -32.7% 8% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$566
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses241 / 77
Open positions12
Markets (closed)318 / 330
History coverage204d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 318 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $109 $109 +$1 (+1%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $92 $96 +$4 (+4%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $78 $79 +$1 (+2%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $58 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $39 $42 +$3 (+8%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +11%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $37 +$3 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $29 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $48 +$2 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $20 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $10 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $18 −$1 -3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 25 $4 $0 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 25 $9 −$9 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 23 $22 +$3 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $5 +$1 +20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $67 +$3 +4%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $20 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $20 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 20? May 21 $7 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 20 $77 +$1 +2%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 18 $46 −$1 -2%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $10 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $38 +$2 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $173 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C or higher on May 15? May 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 14? May 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on May 13? May 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C or higher on May 12? May 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 12? May 13 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or higher on May 12? May 13 $70 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 11? May 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 11? May 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 11 $28 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 11? May 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma May 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 10? May 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 10? May 11 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 10? May 11 $30 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 19h
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 45h
Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 99¢ $11 46h
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 2d
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $26 3d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 99¢ $10 3d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 97¢ $10 3d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 BUY No 95¢ $10 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $9 6d
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 8d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $12 9d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 9d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $8 9d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $59 10d
Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY No 90¢ $9 13d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $17 13d
Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 94¢ $6 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 14d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 14d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 14d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $18 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $20 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $2 15d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 94¢ $9 15d
Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 SELL No 94¢ $1 16d
Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY No 88¢ $18 16d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $566.19 · official $566.21 (match) · 879 history records