Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:02:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x368e…84e1 other 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%45W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days+$23
14 days+$26
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$117
sports 16% −$151
world 2% −$7
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +14.4% +3.5% 47% 47% -5.4%
≤30d 95 +8.2% -2.1% 43% 42% -14.1%
≤90d 106 +7.5% -2.8% 42% 42% -12.8%
all 106 +7.5% -2.8% 42% 42% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 42% -12.8%
10% -12.1% 40% -21.2%
15% -20.6% 34% -28.8%
20% -28.3% 30% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$367
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses45 / 61
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions23
Markets (closed)106 / 129
History coverage33d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 100¢ $51 $81 +$30 (+59%)
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $70 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $43 $48 +$5 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $26 $21 −$5 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $17 $18 +$2 (+12%)
Will Elliot Anderson join Manchester City? Yes 82¢ 95¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+16%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 66¢ 83¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 99¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+59%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-25%)
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? Yes 85¢ 74¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 60¢ 48¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 93¢ 90¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal? No 84¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Dusan Vlahovic join Arsenal? No 90¢ 50¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -89%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$9 +864%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$21 +51%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +25%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -69%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 +$9 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 +$17 +56%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +132%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +60%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$15 +72%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$31 +51%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +303%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 +$12 +45%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +246%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +340%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $22 +$20 +91%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +246%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$9 +103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +156%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $2 +$4 +194%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 73¢ $36 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 5h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $18 23h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 31h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 38h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 38h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 38h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 38h
Will Elliot Anderson join Manchester City? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 45h
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal? BUY No 84¢ $2 2d
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 2d
Will Elliot Anderson join Manchester City? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2d
Will Dusan Vlahovic join Arsenal? BUY No 90¢ $2 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $367.15 · official $367.65 (match) · 352 history records