Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:24:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
36 0x368d…d853 sports 939 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,845 (+3%) realized +$5,845 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%465W / 475L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$2,361est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$730now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,137
7 days−$2,680
14 days−$586
30 days+$2,851
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,811
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -34.8% -41.0% 29% 29% -39.2%
≤30d 158 +9.5% -1.0% 53% 51% -3.7%
≤90d 912 +2.2% -7.5% 48% 45% -9.2%
all 940 +4.6% -5.4% 49% 46% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 46% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 41% -16.4%
15% -22.7% 37% -24.5%
20% -30.3% 33% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$144 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$730
Realized+$5,845
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses465 / 475
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$2,361
Open positions1
Markets (closed)940 / 939
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$178
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 940 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 36¢ 36¢ $730 $730 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 271 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: SK Gaming vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $174 −$174 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $155 −$155 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1,290 −$1,276 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $55 −$54 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $319 −$313 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $740 −$740 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $476 −$465 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $647 −$24 -4%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $212 −$212 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $623 +$1,377 +221%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $601 −$601 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $506 +$164 +32%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $70 −$68 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $355 −$352 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $655 +$250 +38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $519 −$512 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $167 −$164 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $223 +$444 +199%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $172 +$160 +93%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $154 +$136 +89%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $194 +$261 +134%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $152 +$48 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $171 +$229 +134%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $312 +$88 +28%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $421 +$379 +90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $147 +$123 +84%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $64 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $168 −$168 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $144 −$144 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $159 +$39 +24%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $235 −$144 -61%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $158 −$155 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $406 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $134 +$486 +362%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $338 −$335 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $150 +$185 +124%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $153 +$25 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $272 −$122 -45%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $131 +$630 +480%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $149 +$338 +226%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $503 +$432 +86%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $240 −$240 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $153 +$132 +86%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $397 +$403 +101%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $139 −$139 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $268 +$532 +198%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $478 −$472 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $337 −$330 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $377 4m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 36¢ $367 9m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $638 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $652 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3¢ $55 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 37¢ $4 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 36¢ $315 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 37¢ $740 5h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $476 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 63¢ $623 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $647 28h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $194 44h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $19 44h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $0 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $11 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $91 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $306 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $316 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $108 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $114 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $115 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $3 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $131 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $45 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $85 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 17¢ $70 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $172 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $183 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $506 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 78¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $730.00 · official $730.00 (match) · 3500 history records