Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:25:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x368a…3057 crypto 476 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8,658 (-4%) realized −$8,660 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate70%348W / 152L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$431per market
Trades / day69.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 45d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,925
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -32.2% -38.7% 51% 36% -6.3%
≤30d 75 -32.2% -38.7% 51% 36% -6.3%
≤90d 500 -4.2% -13.4% 70% 51% -8.8%
all 500 -4.2% -13.4% 70% 51% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 51% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 34% -17.5%
15% -29.2% 21% -25.5%
20% -36.2% 12% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$507) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$266 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$8,660
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses348 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)500 / 476
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$431
Trades / day69.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 500 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 86¢ 88¢ $72 $74 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $425 −$425 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 26 $256 −$256 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $145 −$137 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $466 −$466 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $42 −$45 -107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$166 -1118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $227 −$227 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 26 $1,925 +$412 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $5,071 +$286 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $3,594 +$331 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $1,629 +$524 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $2,135 +$759 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $2,372 +$1,614 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $820 −$795 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $1,225 −$1,144 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $1,717 −$4 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $913 +$357 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $4,466 +$277 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $3,263 +$1,249 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $637 −$599 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $2,744 +$784 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $503 +$41 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $1,146 −$1,082 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $617 +$391 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $1,018 +$328 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $1,316 +$315 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $1,012 +$191 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $610 +$179 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $1,775 +$700 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $2,365 −$411 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $508 +$146 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $2,421 +$160 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $77 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 8m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.25 · official $74.25 (match) · 3500 history records