Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:20:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3685…a810 politics 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%3W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$388now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 46% −$1
politics 43% −$3
other 11% −$5
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.5% -12.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -3.5% -12.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 5 -3.5% -12.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 21 -2.4% -11.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$388
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses3 / 18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage234d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $208 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $178 $178 −$0 (-0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $209 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -17%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $208 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $209 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jan 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Jan 20 $408 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $89 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 19 $994 +$1 +0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 16 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 15 $496 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $380 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $117 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 13 $497 −$1 -0%
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 07 $15 −$5 -34%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 25 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 31 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 23m
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 7h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 9h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 10h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 13h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 13h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 15h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 18h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 18h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 39h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 39h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $10 139d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $14 139d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $14 139d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $10 139d
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? SELL No 97¢ $10 146d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? SELL No 92¢ $8 146d
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? BUY No 97¢ $10 146d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 93¢ $8 146d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $407 152d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $89 152d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $408 153d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $89 153d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 96¢ $497 153d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 96¢ $428 154d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 96¢ $68 154d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $426 156d
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? SELL No 100¢ $70 156d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $426 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.81 · official $387.81 (match) · 57 history records