trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 4 | -10.2% | -18.7% | 50% | 25% | -7.5% |
| all | 25 | -5.4% | -14.4% | 56% | 8% | -8.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.4% | 8% | -8.6% |
| 10% | -22.6% | 4% | -17.4% |
| 15% | -30.1% | 4% | -25.3% |
| 20% | -36.9% | 4% | -32.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 93¢ | 93¢ | $30 | $30 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senators vs. Islanders | Apr 11 | $110 | −$110 | -100% |
| Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Apr 01 | $349 | −$1 | -0% |
| Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) | Mar 24 | $220 | +$130 | +59% |
| Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Mar 20 | $223 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru | Mar 05 | $218 | +$2 | +1% |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | Jan 30 | $220 | +$4 | +2% |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | Jan 25 | $200 | +$10 | +5% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? | Jan 16 | $4 | +$1 | +20% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jan 12 | $205 | $0 | -0% |
| Maduro out in 2025? | Jan 03 | $195 | +$5 | +3% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Dec 14 | $199 | +$1 | +1% |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | Dec 08 | $7 | $0 | +5% |
| Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? | Dec 03 | $202 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 01 | $207 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Nov 28 | $199 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? | Nov 25 | $2 | −$1 | -67% |
| Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Nov 21 | $196 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Nov 19 | $199 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? | Nov 16 | $3 | −$1 | -43% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Oct 29 | $164 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? | Oct 21 | $187 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Oct 19 | $1 | $0 | -20% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Oct 15 | $167 | −$2 | -1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 13 | $153 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? | Oct 09 | $187 | +$2 | +1% |