Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3680…1169 sports 197 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate70%136W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$2
other 10% +$1
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +0.7% -8.9% 76% 66% -8.5%
≤30d 195 -0.6% -10.0% 70% 59% -9.6%
≤90d 195 -0.6% -10.0% 70% 59% -9.6%
all 195 -0.6% -10.0% 70% 59% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 59% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 43% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 25% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses136 / 59
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)195 / 197
History coverage21d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? No 87¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +30%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +58%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $2 +$1 +48%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +38%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2 +$1 +50%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $2 +$1 +52%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +57%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $2 $0 +17%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $2 +$1 +33%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $2 +$1 +31%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $2 $0 +24%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +33%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $2 +$1 +52%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Lukas Pokorny Jun 10 $2 $0 +13%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $2 +$1 +43%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $2 +$1 +34%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 87¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $3 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 97¢ $3 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $2 3h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 3h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 93¢ $2 3h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $2 4h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 67¢ $2 4h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $3 23h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 98¢ $3 24h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3 25h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $2 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 26h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL No 99¢ $3 26h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 72¢ $2 26h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 62¢ $2 26h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 65¢ $2 27h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 96¢ $2 27h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $2 27h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $2 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 28h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 62¢ $2 28h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $2 29h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Indiana Fever 97¢ $2 29h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Indiana Fever 91¢ $2 29h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $2 42h
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette SELL Barbora Krejcikova 99¢ $3 42h
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 65¢ $2 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.03 · official $4.03 (match) · 370 history records