Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:31:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3680…f129 crypto 1033 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,830 (-10%) realized −$3,830 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate58%594W / 439L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 100d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,448
other 0% −$4
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 160 -39.5% -45.2% 34% 20% -26.1%
≤90d 791 -7.9% -16.6% 54% 43% -14.2%
all 1033 -6.6% -15.5% 58% 34% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 34% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 29% -21.4%
15% -31.0% 26% -29.0%
20% -37.7% 25% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,830
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses594 / 439
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1033 / 1033
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1033 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $266 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $264 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $263 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $262 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $261 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $260 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $258 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $257 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $256 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $256 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $254 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $253 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $17 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $17 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 29 $18 −$12 -68%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 29 $15 +$9 +59%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 29 $16 −$15 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 29 $13 +$16 +124%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 29 $11 −$11 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 29 $15 −$14 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 29 $11 +$19 +174%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 29 $6 −$6 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 29 $8 −$7 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 29 $8 +$10 +116%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 29 $12 −$11 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 29 $16 −$4 -25%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 29 $12 −$12 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 29 $11 −$10 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 29 $17 +$7 +40%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 29 $8 −$7 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 29 $16 −$16 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 29 $15 −$14 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 29 $9 −$9 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 29 $20 −$3 -13%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 29 $10 +$13 +130%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 29 $10 +$14 +135%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 29 $9 −$8 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 29 $11 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $266 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $264 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $263 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $262 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $261 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $260 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $258 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $257 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $256 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $256 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $254 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $253 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $18 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $17 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 2d
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 28d
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 28d
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 28d
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 28d
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records