Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

36 0x367f…fef9 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$40 (-37%) realized −$33 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip

Net edge-54%after slip

Net WR26%break-even

Win rate26%6W / 17L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$4per market

Trades / day10.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit48%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +26%

net ROI/market (all)-50.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-44.9%	-50.1%	26%	26%	-36.4%
≤30d	23	-44.9%	-50.1%	26%	26%	-36.4%
≤90d	23	-44.9%	-50.1%	26%	26%	-36.4%
all	23	-44.9%	-50.1%	26%	26%	-36.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-50.1%	26%	-36.4%
10%	-54.9%	22%	-42.5%
15%	-59.3%	22%	-48.0%
20%	-63.3%	17%	-53.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -45% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -44% → late -46% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.48 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$33

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)26%

Wins / losses6 / 17

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)23 / 25

History coverage3d

Avg bet$4

Trades / day10.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-99%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	Yes	20¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$5	+$1	+15%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$5	$0	-9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	+$6	+121%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-98%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	−$4	-82%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	+$6	+126%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-99%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco?	Jun 13	$4	−$4	-99%
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland?	Jun 13	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$4	−$4	-97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$5	+$6	+113%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$5	+$8	+158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 12	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$5	+$2	+43%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$4	−$4	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$4	1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	6¢	$2	2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	75¢	$2	2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	76¢	$5	2h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$5	2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Derrick Lewis	22¢	$2	2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	3¢	$1	2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	8¢	$4	2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Justin Gaethje	20¢	$5	3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	21¢	$5	4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$5	5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first?	BUY Yes	16¢	$1	7h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$11	7h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	44¢	$5	7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	20¢	$2	7h
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands?	BUY Yes	43¢	$5	8h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	SELL Yes	3¢	$1	26h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	19¢	$5	26h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	28h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$12	28h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	43¢	$5	29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$5	31h
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco?	BUY Yes	65¢	$4	31h
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland?	BUY Yes	17¢	$2	34h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	6¢	$4	34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$11	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	46¢	$5	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	21¢	$5	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$0	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 37 history records