Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x367e…3cad other 193 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-6%) realized −$46 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%97W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$21
14 days+$27
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$46
sports 25% +$8
crypto 4% −$23
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +42.8% +29.2% 70% 70% +39.9%
≤30d 148 -5.0% -14.0% 53% 42% -9.0%
≤90d 192 -8.3% -17.1% 51% 41% -17.0%
all 192 -8.3% -17.1% 51% 41% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 41% -17.0%
10% -25.0% 33% -25.0%
15% -32.3% 26% -32.2%
20% -38.9% 18% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$46
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses97 / 95
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)192 / 193
History coverage40d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 +$12 +240%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 +$5 +153%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$6 +57%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$1 +49%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $2 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $13 +$8 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +31%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $2 $0 +5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 $0 -8%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $2 $0 -12%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $1 $0 +6%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $2 +$1 +53%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $4 −$2 -49%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $3 +$6 +194%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10 +$2 +17%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $1 $0 +7%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $1 $0 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 -16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $9 −$3 -33%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $7 −$2 -23%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -83%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $2 +$1 +69%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $3 +$3 +114%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $3 +$1 +43%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 02 $3 −$3 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $2 −$2 -99%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $2 +$2 +76%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $3 +$1 +35%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $2 −$2 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $2 +$1 +35%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 02 $2 +$1 +44%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $2 +$1 +64%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $3 −$3 -89%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 G Jun 01 $2 $0 -6%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $5 −$2 -38%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $3 $0 +9%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $3 −$3 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 1m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $18 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $2 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 19h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $8 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $9 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $3 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 66¢ $3 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 43¢ $2 5d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 59¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 62¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $7 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $7 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $6 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $7 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 8d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs SELL San Francisco Giants 50¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.50 · official $9.50 (match) · 435 history records