Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
36 0x367d…7312 sports 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$310 (-2%) realized −$267 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate66%117W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$384
7 days+$14
14 days+$95
30 days+$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$170
sports 25% −$570
other 4% +$450
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +0.5% -9.1% 84% 23% -9.4%
≤30d 83 +5.1% -4.9% 86% 29% -7.4%
≤90d 178 -4.7% -13.8% 66% 31% -11.4%
all 178 -4.7% -13.8% 66% 31% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 31% -11.4%
10% -22.0% 25% -19.8%
15% -29.5% 23% -27.6%
20% -36.5% 21% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$42 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized−$267
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses117 / 61
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions4
Markets (closed)178 / 182
History coverage46d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 70¢ $204 $161 −$42 (-21%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 56¢ 55¢ $123 $119 −$3 (-3%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 4.5 Corners Over 5¢ 19¢ $2 $9 +$6 (+280%)
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier Miami Heretics 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $111 +$95 +86%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $169 +$288 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $45 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $143 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $267 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $36 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $268 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $94 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $76 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $252 +$21 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $117 +$23 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $267 −$267 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $268 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $229 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $267 +$36 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $71 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$28 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $158 −$158 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $28 −$23 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $107 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $106 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $36 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $166 −$38 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $47 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $254 −$254 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $267 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $268 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $84 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $164 +$42 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $267 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $266 −$241 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $250 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$26 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $178 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$34 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$14 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $178 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $178 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $130 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $178 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$3 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 5¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $204 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 5¢ $0 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $54 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $68 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $169 4h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Miami Heretics 20¢ $2 5h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Miami Heretics 20¢ $2 5h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Miami Heretics 20¢ $0 5h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Miami Heretics 20¢ $1 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $111 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $38 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $260 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $26 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $268 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $36 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $36 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.36 · official $289.36 (match) · 907 history records