Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x367b…d41c world 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%9W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$3
other 21% −$2
politics 14% $0
crypto 9% +$1
tech 6% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 40% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 40% 0% -8.9%
all 33 -2.6% -11.9% 27% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -9.4%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.0%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses9 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage268d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $46 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $90 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $16 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $94 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Jan 31 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic a Oct 06 $26 $0 -1%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 05 $22 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Oct 02 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will the 2025 Ryder Cup end in a tie? Sep 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in September? Sep 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during address to UN General Asse Sep 25 $28 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $48 2m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $46 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $20 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $20 9h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $45 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $45 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $46 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $44 11d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $44 12d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $44 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $24 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $11 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $4 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $7 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $22 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $45 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $45 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $17 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records