Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
36 0x3678…b99e crypto 283 markets active 1h ago coverage 509d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,257 (-4%) realized −$2,257 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate84%239W / 44L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$631
14 days−$966
30 days−$1,661
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,489
other 0% $0
sports 0% −$7
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -9.4% -18.1% 82% 11% -25.2%
≤30d 238 -3.6% -12.8% 87% 21% -12.8%
≤90d 264 -3.7% -12.9% 88% 20% -13.8%
all 283 -3.7% -12.9% 84% 19% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 19% -13.8%
10% -21.2% 9% -22.0%
15% -28.8% 6% -29.6%
20% -35.8% 4% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$126 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

509d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,257
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses239 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)283 / 283
History coverage509d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 283 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $234 −$234 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $208 +$40 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $251 −$251 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $228 +$16 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $234 +$274 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $225 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $255 −$255 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $229 +$14 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $227 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $253 −$253 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $250 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $251 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $281 −$281 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $276 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $275 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $274 +$28 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $271 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $305 −$305 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $300 +$38 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $297 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $295 +$45 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $292 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $291 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $289 +$38 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $286 +$21 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $284 +$26 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $280 +$43 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $302 −$302 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $296 +$201 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $284 +$72 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $278 +$46 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $304 −$304 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $208 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $234 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $228 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $251 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $234 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $225 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $255 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $229 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $227 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $253 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $250 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $251 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $281 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $276 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 569 history records