Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3675…d5a6 world 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$68 (-3%) realized −$76 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate72%47W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$816now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$22
14 days+$22
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$115
politics 36% −$105
world 14% −$85
crypto 4% $0
culture 4% −$2
tech 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +13.6% +2.8% 100% 75% +1.6%
≤30d 17 +4.4% -5.6% 82% 59% -9.2%
≤90d 65 -1.1% -10.5% 72% 57% -14.2%
all 65 -1.1% -10.5% 72% 57% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 57% -14.2%
10% -19.0% 37% -22.4%
15% -26.9% 11% -29.9%
20% -34.0% 6% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$16 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$816
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses47 / 18
Open positions18
Markets (closed)65 / 83
History coverage70d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $200 $225 +$25 (+13%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 93¢ 86¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No 33¢ 35¢ $70 $74 +$4 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 78¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 79¢ 80¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? No 73¢ 80¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 82¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 35¢ 17¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No 59¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 73¢ 11¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-85%)
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? No 88¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 22 $20 +$2 +12%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Jun 22 $40 +$4 +9%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 22 $21 +$5 +22%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 18 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 03 $222 −$61 -28%
Kash Patel out by December 31? Jun 03 $10 +$3 +29%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 Jun 01 $20 +$3 +16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +6%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +5%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $20 +$5 +24%
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $21 +$16 +75%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 27 $100 +$4 +4%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? May 26 $20 +$8 +37%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 24 $20 +$6 +29%
Kash Patel out by June 30? May 24 $20 +$4 +21%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $40 +$11 +27%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 18 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Trump praise Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026? May 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? May 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 18 $100 −$25 -24%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in priso May 17 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? May 15 $10 +$2 +20%
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026? May 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 13 $1 $0 +25%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 13 $10 +$7 +71%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $11 +$3 +23%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 09 $111 −$19 -17%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? May 09 $10 +$2 +23%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 May 08 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 06 $20 +$5 +23%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $16 +$3 +21%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? May 04 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? May 04 $10 +$2 +20%
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026? May 03 $1 $0 +16%
Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner? May 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30? May 03 $1 $0 +10%
Major US official out by April 30? May 03 $1 $0 +24%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 01 $20 −$7 -35%
Trump re-sues WSJ by April 27? Apr 28 $1 $0 +43%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by April 30? Apr 28 $1 $0 +22%
Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $10 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $22 1h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $44 1h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $112 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 80¢ $139 19d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No 19¢ $22 19d
Kash Patel out by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $13 19d
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $16 21d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $20 22d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $20 22d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $20 22d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 69¢ $122 26d
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY No 23¢ $5 26d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $104 26d
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $21 26d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $28 27d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $26 29d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $24 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $51 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 32d
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $21 35d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $20 35d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 35d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL No 95¢ $25 35d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $20 35d
Will Trump praise Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $10 35d
Kash Patel out by December 31? BUY No 34¢ $10 35d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $20 35d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $20 35d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? BUY No 76¢ $20 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $815.78 · official $815.79 (match) · 161 history records