Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3673…2d13 sports 166 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15,197 (-16%) realized −$15,178 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%67W / 92L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$557per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$1,416est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,289
7 days+$1,734
14 days+$2,847
30 days−$3,150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$15,590
world 0% −$3
other 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -35.8% -42.0% 29% 29% +14.6%
≤30d 89 -14.8% -22.9% 40% 40% -16.2%
≤90d 159 -12.6% -20.9% 42% 42% -25.1%
all 159 -12.6% -20.9% 42% 42% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 42% -25.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 42% -32.3%
15% -35.4% 40% -38.8%
20% -41.7% 39% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$790) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$483 vs −$520 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$2,131
Realized−$15,178
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses67 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$1,416
Open positions7
Markets (closed)159 / 166
History coverage78d
Avg bet$557
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $492 $487 −$5 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $422 $418 −$5 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $324 $321 −$3 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $300 $291 −$9 (-3%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $276 $273 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Las Vegas Aces 52¢ 52¢ $263 $266 +$3 (+1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 50¢ 52¢ $72 $76 +$4 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $304 +$196 +65%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $292 +$308 +105%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $364 −$360 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $494 +$519 +105%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $128 −$2 -2%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2,671 +$3,332 +125%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $719 −$704 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5 Jun 13 $445 −$438 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $179 −$177 -99%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 13 $409 −$408 -100%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 12 $98 −$98 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 Jun 09 $202 −$199 -99%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-15.5) Jun 09 $187 −$187 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-5.5) Jun 08 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5) Jun 08 $174 −$171 -98%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 161.5 Jun 08 $173 −$170 -98%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $978 +$538 +55%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 07 $194 −$194 -100%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $660 +$540 +82%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 175.5 Jun 07 $168 −$168 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 174.5 Jun 07 $190 −$190 -100%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-2.5) Jun 07 $153 −$153 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5) Jun 07 $195 +$182 +93%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) Jun 06 $145 +$185 +127%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 06 $102 +$98 +96%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $162 +$264 +163%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 06 $496 $0 -0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 06 $118 −$118 -100%
Belarus vs. Syria: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $345 +$155 +45%
Belarus vs. Syria: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $417 +$104 +25%
Spread: Georgia (-1.5) Jun 05 $307 −$307 -100%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $152 +$48 +32%
Spread: China PR (-1.5) Jun 05 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-14.5) Jun 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 166.5 Jun 02 $103 +$97 +93%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 02 $98 +$102 +104%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-10.5) Jun 02 $117 +$83 +70%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-12.5) Jun 02 $204 +$189 +92%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 02 $142 +$58 +41%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $172 +$28 +16%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 167.5 Jun 01 $94 −$94 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-1.5) Jun 01 $154 +$126 +82%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 168.5 Jun 01 $58 +$65 +112%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 Jun 01 $146 +$134 +92%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $811 +$844 +104%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 31 $75 −$75 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-4.5) May 30 $94 −$94 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 30 $98 −$98 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $2,033 +$1,575 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 52¢ $33 16m
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 52¢ $230 16m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $328 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $280 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $304 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 50¢ $1 19h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 50¢ $1 19h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 50¢ $5 20h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 50¢ $1 21h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $304 21h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 50¢ $2 22h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 50¢ $1 22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $292 22h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $364 22h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 50¢ $8 22h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 50¢ $1 23h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $126 23h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 50¢ $2 30h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 50¢ $51 34h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $14 45h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $9 45h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 45h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 45h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $18 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $383 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $3 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $32 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $7 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $17 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,130.96 · official $2,130.96 (match) · 849 history records