Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:43:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
36 0x366f…5682 crypto 195 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$91 (+3%) realized +$87 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%188W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$70
14 days+$82
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$81
politics 6% +$4
other 1% $0
finance 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 1% -6.6%
≤30d 188 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 1% -6.7%
≤90d 188 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 1% -6.7%
all 188 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 1% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 1% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 0% -15.6%
15% -23.7% 0% -23.7%
20% -31.2% 0% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized+$87
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses188 / 0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)188 / 195
History coverage9d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 3h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $15 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $15 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 96¢ $14 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 99¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 16h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 99¢ $20 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.20 · official $140.23 (match) · 385 history records