Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:35:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
36 0x366e…dc73 other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$744 (+11%) realized +$756 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%23W / 35L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$710now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$225
7 days+$672
14 days+$711
30 days+$711
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$591
other 49% +$207
world 2% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +11.8% +1.1% 38% 36% +2.4%
≤30d 58 +9.2% -1.2% 40% 38% +1.5%
≤90d 58 +9.2% -1.2% 40% 38% +1.5%
all 58 +9.2% -1.2% 40% 38% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 38% +1.5%
10% -10.7% 33% -8.2%
15% -19.3% 29% -17.0%
20% -27.2% 19% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$43 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$710
Realized+$756
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses23 / 35
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions12
Markets (closed)58 / 70
History coverage11d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $55 $51 −$4 (-7%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $301 +$58 +19%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 +$61 +596%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$134 +262%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $315 +$72 +23%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$6 -57%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $51 −$9 -18%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 +$76 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $253 +$185 +73%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 −$52 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $961 +$22 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 +$74 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $76 −$74 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $60 +$185 +307%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $82 +$194 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $49 +$159 +325%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$215 +1396%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $245 +$169 +69%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$54 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $56 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $122 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $56 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $82 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 3h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 83¢ $301 9h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $315 18h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 18h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 24h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $40 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 24h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 25h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 25h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $709.62 · official $709.67 (match) · 110 history records