Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:46:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
36 0x366d…a697 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$949 (+21%) realized +$952 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%44W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$6
sports 22% +$953
crypto 19% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 40 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 42 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 46 +2.4% -7.4% 96% 2% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 2% +9.4%
10% -16.2% 2% -1.1%
15% -24.3% 2% -10.6%
20% -31.7% 2% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$3 · ×8.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×352.56 per $1 lost it wins $352.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$952
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses44 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage137d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 22? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 18? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 8? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? Jun 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 2? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 on May 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 26? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 22? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 16 $992 +$953 +96%
Will Chinese Taipei win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Feb 11 $2,691 −$3 -0%
Perth Wildcats vs. Cairns Taipans Feb 11 $1 $0 +8%
Will Japan win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 06 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 26h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 26h
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 5d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 11d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $30 12d
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $30 13d
Will Solana dip to $45 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $11 15d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $30 15d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $30 18d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 19d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $30 20d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 21d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $30 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.01 · official $41.99 (match) · 99 history records