Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:46:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x366a…35a5
crypto · 44 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$3 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses23 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage109d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 4 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans Rajasthan Royals 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 11 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 11 $1 $0 +20%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $1 $0 +42%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 P May 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 25 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 06 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 06 $1 $0 +26%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki Apr 05 $3 −$2 -54%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 05 $3 $0 -10%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 04 $2 +$1 +38%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 04 $1 $0 -28%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings Apr 03 $1 +$1 +148%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 03 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Apr 02 $18 −$1 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 01 $2 −$1 -54%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Delhi Capitals Apr 01 $2 +$1 +46%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans Mar 31 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $2 $0 +25%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Mar 29 $1 $0 +26%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on March 28? Mar 28 $1 +$1 +118%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 28? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026? Mar 27 $1 +$1 +92%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $1 +$3 +336%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 09 $5 +$2 +43%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 05 $5 +$1 +11%
T20 World Cup: India vs Zimbabwe Feb 27 $10 +$1 +8%
T20 World Cup: England vs Pakistan Feb 25 $2 $0 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 45% +$4
crypto 40% +$2
finance 9% −$3
other 4% $0
politics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 33d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans BUY Rajasthan Royals 38¢ $1 34d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam SELL Yes 99¢ $1 39d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 P SELL Yes 0¢ $0 39d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 P BUY Yes 6¢ $1 40d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam BUY Yes 69¢ $1 40d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings SELL Punjab Kings 100¢ $2 48d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 58¢ $1 48d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 60d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 66d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $2 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -97.2% -97.5% 0% 0% -97.5%
≤30d 1 -97.2% -97.5% 0% 0% -97.5%
≤90d 36 +8.5% -1.9% 56% 53% -10.1%
all 40 +8.7% -1.7% 58% 52% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 52% -6.8%
10% -11.1% 48% -15.8%
15% -19.7% 35% -23.9%
20% -27.5% 22% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.97 · official $3.97 (match) · 107 history records