Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
36 0x3668…3a1e sports 281 markets active 3h ago coverage 832d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$304 (-1%) realized −$301 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate34%82W / 161L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$13
14 days−$72
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$19
sports 30% −$194
other 24% −$60
economics 12% −$7
tech 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
world 1% −$17
crypto 0% −$3
finance 0% −$7
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +2.5% -7.2% 59% 46% -15.9%
≤30d 67 -18.0% -25.8% 48% 39% -34.2%
≤90d 69 -17.9% -25.7% 48% 39% -29.5%
all 243 -0.3% -9.8% 34% 26% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 26% -10.2%
10% -18.4% 25% -18.8%
15% -26.3% 22% -26.7%
20% -33.5% 16% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

832d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$301
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses82 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions38
Markets (closed)243 / 281
History coverage832d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 73¢ 93¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+27%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+19%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 46¢ 55¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 60¢ 70¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 69¢ 67¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 47¢ 43¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 52¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 47¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No 41¢ 81¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+99%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 95¢ 94¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 71¢ 66¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? No 44¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+66%)
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 59¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +21%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 17 $4 +$8 +188%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -51%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$5 -43%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +231%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $6 −$1 -11%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $9 −$1 -12%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +56%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 +$6 +152%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $2 $0 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $6 −$4 -60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 13 $6 $0 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $6 +$3 +54%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 +$1 +41%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $4 $0 +4%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Set 1 Winner: Bolt vs Smith Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -34%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $6 +$3 +43%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $6 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 +$1 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $2 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 39¢ $4 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $2 6h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $4 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 7h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 34¢ $3 7h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 34¢ $1 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $2 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 39¢ $3 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $1 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $3 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 45¢ $2 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $2 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 40¢ $4 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $2 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $2 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 10h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY No 21¢ $1 10h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $2 10h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY No 26¢ $1 11h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes $1 13h
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 13h
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.47 · official $123.52 (match) · 649 history records