Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:02:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3667…7174 crypto 208 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$1,519 (+11%) realized +$1,560 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate81%149W / 35L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$67
crypto 15% +$1,499
politics 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
world 0% +$2
weather 0% +$27
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +188.8% +161.3% 11% 11% -9.6%
≤30d 19 +65.6% +49.8% 16% 16% -9.6%
≤90d 82 +29.1% +16.8% 65% 16% -9.5%
all 184 +14.1% +3.2% 81% 12% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 12% +0.7%
10% -6.7% 10% -9.0%
15% -15.7% 9% -17.8%
20% -24.0% 8% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×6.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×28.21 per $1 lost it wins $28.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$1,560
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses149 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions23
Markets (closed)184 / 208
History coverage133d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 50¢ 94¢ $43 $80 +$37 (+87%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 50¢ 6¢ $42 $5 −$37 (-87%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 7¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-61%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 80¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 38¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 87¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 49¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 51¢ 43¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,232 −$5 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,238 −$6 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,241 −$4 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,246 −$4 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,251 −$4 -0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? Jun 14 $1 +$29 +2788%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 4? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 4? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 01 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $1 +$2 +233%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 17 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 13 $1 +$2 +245%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 13 $1 +$6 +529%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 09 $1 +$3 +317%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 03 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 03 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 03 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,226 17m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,232 17m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,232 25m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,238 33m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,237 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,241 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,242 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,246 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $2,247 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,251 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Spain win on 2026-0 BUY 12¢ $1 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 4? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 4? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 17d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $2 19d
Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 22d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 46¢ $2 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 22d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 33d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $2 33d
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 34d
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $1 34d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.10 · official $110.10 (match) · 458 history records