Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3667…d41a crypto 412 markets active 5h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-3%) realized −$29 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate70%282W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$5
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$20
finance 16% −$4
world 6% −$6
other 4% −$9
weather 3% +$2
tech 3% +$4
politics 2% −$3
sports 1% −$2
culture 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -6.9% -15.8% 68% 40% -13.3%
≤30d 59 +2.2% -7.5% 73% 47% -7.8%
≤90d 237 -14.8% -22.9% 65% 41% -28.3%
all 401 -4.5% -13.6% 70% 45% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 45% -12.9%
10% -21.9% 26% -21.2%
15% -29.4% 13% -28.8%
20% -36.3% 7% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses282 / 119
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)401 / 412
History coverage107d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 401 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 85¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 91¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of June 15 2026? No 84¢ 81¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 74¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 86¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 70¢ 61¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Smith & Wesson (SWBI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -76%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $3 $0 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $7 −$2 -29%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 -11%
Will Campbell's (CPB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump say "N Word" this week? Jun 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 6? Jun 07 $2 $0 +5%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -62%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $3 $0 +12%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 05 $1 $0 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 05 $1 $0 -4%
Will lululemon athletica (LULU) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 05 $1 $0 +13%
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May? Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in May? Jun 04 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +46%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 02 $1 $0 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +15%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 02 $3 $0 +14%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $5 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Smith & Wesson (SWBI) beat quarterly earnings? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 98¢ $2 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 94¢ $2 7h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 12h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 100¢ $1 12h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 14h
Will Smith & Wesson (SWBI) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 14h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 89¢ $1 14h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 86¢ $6 14h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 74¢ $1 16h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 82¢ $4 16h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 75¢ $1 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 29¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $1 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $2 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 86¢ $1 2d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 84¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $3 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 95¢ $2 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $2 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 77¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.68 · official $19.77 (match) · 1427 history records